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JIMB

The main theme (no one asked what would happen if housing stopped climbing) is counterfactual, Steve.

There were many people that saw this coming, many prominant figures in finance ... even major websites: Itulip, ml-implode, prominant individuals like Jim Rogers (short all the financials...), Robert Shiller (he is incorrect if that is an accurate replication of his quote).

Bob Hoye over at institutionaladvisors said precisely that the problems would occur right after housing stopped going up.

The guys that seemed to get it totally wrong were Kudlow, Luskin, etc. the supply siders who are right about a lot but get monetary policy badly wrong (asset inflation and price discoordination is a much bigger cost than "price deflation").

I think the relevant question now is (would love to see a post on this) is can the government finance a 1.5 Trillion bailout if it is structured correctly?

I'd assume 10% interest rates to account for success (where interest rates climb) or failure (where tax revenues plunge and increase the debt)

My feeling is the government can finance the bailout can. So the second question is, how will it be financed and what are the groups most likely to be hurt? And what does this lead to for the next cycle?

millhead

I work for a 91 year old, 4th generation owned, media company. We are not publicly traded...but, the theory is the same. The CEO that took over for his father 4.5 years ago abandoned the "board of directors" model that consistently rubber stamped what his father wanted. Additionally, he bought out his siblings stock therefore taking sole ownership. He then chose to enact a small "advisory board" made up of a couple publishing peers, a banker, a CEO of an unrelated industry, and a CFO of an unrelated industry. This group of individuals provides the advice a "board of directors" never did...from financial, to technology, to human resources, to content creation, etc.

Bottom line - it has worked well and we have survived and even thrived through the biggest transformation in the media/publishing business since TV originated. Why has it worked? He has solicited an unbiased, common sense approach to improving top line revenue and reducing costs.

Publicly traded companies could learn from this model.

PseudoNoise

I'm imagining the board room of a company whose competitors were leveraging 30:1 and making money hand-over-fist for the last several quarters. Two choices are presented:
A) Let's have some sanity, keep to our usual leveraging, not chase the quarter's biggest profit, perhaps hedge a bit too because this looks wacky ..
B) Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead, 40:1 leverage here we come!
What choice would an independent board completely beholden to shareholders make?

Bob

I'm not sure if your post is meant to address the current mess or is more general.

If the former, then you might want to take a look at what "mark to market" (part of the SARBOX fiasco) has done to asset valuation and why in heavens name the uptick rule was eliminated. Other than that sheer stupidity in MBS alchemy is a big contributor.

If the latter, then here's some bullets:

1. Expense stock options. As Buffet questioned: "If it's not an operating expense, what is it?"

2. I like the idea of a non-employee board and would take it a step further. Any potential board member who has made a settlement with the SEC, regardless of admission of guilt, shall be barred from serving on any board for 10 years...of something like that.

3. Take a close look at what mutual funds are up to. Really, my view is that many, very many, of them care less about what is going on at the C level as long as the stock goes up and the fund manager makes his metrics.

inf4mia

I'll start by saying that I'm not sure what the solution is. The problem in my opinion is essentially the "good ole' boy network".

Company's will frequently stack the board with people who have never worked for the company, but buddy-buddy with executives. These friends while giving the appearance of independence will essentially rubber stamp anything the company throws in front of it.

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