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Posts from September 2007

FQ.07.39: Favorite Quote for This Week

__blueribbon With some suitable technology or chemistry to store hydrogen on-board, fuel cells could eventually replace the combustion engine that recharges the nickel-metal-hydride battery pack in hybrid-electric cars... If solar-electric power is used to extract hydrogen from water, there will be no more need for big central power plants and filling stations.  We will decommission the nuclear power plants, shut down the strip mines, and scrap the offshore oil wells.  Silicon and hydrogen will completely displace uranium and carbon.
—Peter Huber, The Bottomless Well

Inflation and Disinflation, Sept 2007

These days, there's a big disconnect among inflation watchers.  Those who weigh gold and oil prices heavily are waving red flags, because those commodities are at or near all-time highs.  On the other hand, both have been high for months, but haven't translated (yet) into higher prices across the broad baskets of consumption items.  In fact, the measures for personal consumption expenditures have been indicating disinflation for about a year.  Here's the monthly chart; click to enlarge:

Infl200709

The PCE inflation (red) indicates today's and yesterday's inflation.   Gold, oil, and also the TIPS spread (blue), in theory, indicate future inflation.  (The tiny gold market and the huge oil market are both predicting inflation, but the huge bond market is not.)  We'll know in 6 to 9 months how reliable each of those three predictors turned out to be, because that's how long it takes for the Fed's monetary policy to play out.  In the meantime, disinflation is what we are currently experiencing for consumption items; that combined with housing asset price deflation is why I think the Fed did the right thing by loosening, which is a recession-prevention move.   

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For those interested in the PCE numbers above, here are three links:

The latest results
A simple explanation
A more detailed explanation


GDP growth, Q2 2007 final

The final estimate for second quarter GDP was a small downward revision versus last month's estimate.  Not many surprises in this rear-view-mirror indicator.   

Here's the monthly chart:

Gdp070927

I'm still waiting optimistically for 5%+ real growth rates to kick in, but I may have a longer wait ahead of me if the growing crowd of recession predictors is even directionally correct.  Articles such as the one at this link (by Professor Hamilton) definitely don't lend support to the optimistic view.  Next month's first look at third quarter results will help sort it out. 

Think the globe is warming, and the Fed is printing money? Wanna bet?

Bet
First:
If you're a believer in global warming, or if you're a non-believer, you can place your bets here (thanks to Caveat Bettor).  [I'm still not sure which way to go on this question, so I'll watch how the "point spread" develops for a while.]

Second:
If you're a believer in the hyperbole that the Fed has been "printing billions in new money" for the last few turbulent weeks, here's a down-to-earth debunking from Professor J.D. Hamilton, one of the most objective economists I've found in the blogosphere.

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End note: 
Here's a good, fact-filled primer on the Fed's activities.

Interest Rates and the Dollar

The monetary turmoil in the last few weeks is evident in the interest rates chart (circled). 

Click to enlarge:
Intrates070923

The Fed's reduction in its target rate, to 4.75%, is raising a few warnings about impending inflation; as usual, though, the experts disagree.  The dollar's downward slide continues, and that could be an inflation signal—but much of the drop is due to the strong euro, and instead of signalling dollar inflation, the strengthening euro might instead induce the European central bank to drop their interest rate.  We'll see.

Here's the latest dollar chart.

Click to enlarge:
Trdwtddolr_070912

FQ.07.38: Favorite Quote for This Week

__blueribbon The two chief enemies of the free society or free enterprise are intellectuals on the one hand and businessmen on the other, for opposite reasons.  Every intellectual believes in freedom for himself, but he’s opposed to freedom for others... He thinks there ought to be a central planning board that will establish social priorities... The businessmen are just the opposite—every businessman is in favor of freedom for everybody else, but when it comes to himself that’s a different question.  He’s always the special case.  He ought to get special privileges from the government, a tariff, this, that, and the other thing.
—Milton Friedman

The debt ceiling: a long-term remedy

75gdp Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson has asked Congress for an increase in the federal debt ceiling as soon as possible, from $8.965 trillion to $9.82 trillion.  That proposal leaves room for improvement; I'll explain why below. 

First, here's part of what he said yesterday:

"The full faith and credit of the United States, to which we all remain committed, is a national asset and a cornerstone of the global financial system," Paulson said in his letter. "In light of current developments in financial markets, which would be exacerbated by uncertainty in the Treasuries market, I urge the Senate to pass the legislation reported by the Finance Committee to increase the debt limit as soon as possible." 

He's absolutely right about US creditworthiness being a national asset.  Unfortunately, it's impossible to place a value on that asset, so we can't know how much it helps to offset the government's widely-publicized "unfunded liabilities."  That's too bad, because creditworthiness (not quantifiable) is one of several intangible assets helping to keep interest rates down in spite of the (quantifiable) unfunded liabilities. 

A better idea
Anyway, I think the recommended change to the debt ceiling could be much better.  Instead of changing the debt ceiling from $8.965 trillion to $9.82 trillion, I recommend changing it from $8.965 trillion to 75% of GDP

Making the debt ceiling dependent on the size of our economy—which is a good proxy for our ability to sustain a given level of borrowing—would immediately yield at least two major benefits.  First, it would put a stop to the meaningless, time-wasting debates and grandstanding about dollar limits.  Second, it would force Congress to introduce a new element into the fiscal debate: how to enhance the growth of our economy. 

I can think of several experts whose testimony would help Congress understand how the government might be able to enhance the economy's growth, starting with Paul Romer.  Robust growth will be especially important in light of the unanimously-recognized upward pressure on government obligations, coming within the next decade or two.  It deserves more time in the national debate. 

New debt ceiling: 75% of GDP.  How about it? 

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I explained this rationale in more detail a while back, in an article titled "Fiscal Responsibility Defined at Last."
If I sound like a broken record, it's for a reason.

Fed Policy and the Money Supply

It almost goes without saying that the Fed's primary job is to ensure a stable currency.  Most of the time, that means preventing inflation (unanticipated inflation, to be more precise), but sometimes it means preventing deflation. 

Currently, the Fed's lever of choice for accomplishing that goal is the target interest rate banks charge each other to meet the Fed's reserve requirements.  A target of 5.25% has been the policy for more than a year, but it might change tomorrow (9/18) when the Fed meets again. 

When I sample internet forum discussions about money and the Fed, the "money supply" is mentioned frequently, because many people still equate a growing money supply to growing inflation.  What is almost never mentioned, however, is "money demand"—which is curious, because when the supply of money grows in tandem with the demand for money to support the real economy, inflation is unaffected.  Not only that, but the demand for money is what the Fed is strongly influencing when it targets the interest rate to implement monetary policy.  Supply and demand together are just as important for monetary analysis as for goods and services. 

A fact of life is that targeting the interest rate means giving up control of the money supply.  Conversely, if the policy were to target the money supply, it would mean giving up control of the interest rate (...and high interest rates of the early '80s, when the Fed was targeting the money supply, are a good example).  Here are two simple illustrations showing what the Fed can control (red line) and cannot control (yellow circle), as the demand for money grows steadily, as it must when the real economy grows steadily. 

Fed1

Fed2

So today, with the Fed targeting the interest rate, the level of the money supply is an outcome, not a control variable.  It's a result of the demand for money and the price of money (i.e., the interest rate).  The Fed's job isn't easy in any case; measuring the inflation rate and growth rate accurately is difficult, and measuring the money supply is even more difficult if not impossible.  Bottom line: the Fed's ability to gauge true inflation rates and real growth rates are much more to the point than the money supply level. 

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For further reading, here's a concise summary, Formulating Monetary Policy, by William F. Hummel.

Deficit Watch, Aug 2007

At first glance, the August report from the Treasury doesn't look good; it makes a balanced budget appear improbable before 2010.  However, total spending looks abnormally inflated by an unusual amount of Social Security Administration outlays (about $30 billion above normal) in August.  If that's some kind of timing issue, it should come back down soon; if not, we can forget about this whole balanced budget trend analysis. 

Before I post the usual trend chart, I'll show why I think the August outlays by the SS Admin are abnormally high.

Outlier0708

The September Treasury report should clear that one up.  For now, I've added a dotted line to the chart below, to show the hypothetical spending trend if the SS Admin outlays in August had been "normal"—in which case, the budget would be trending toward balance in mid-2009, later than previous months' trends have been indicating.   

Click to enlarge.

Deficitwatch_070915

FQ.07.37: Favorite Quote for This Week

__blueribbon In the old days, when a community had a problem they didn't understand, they threw some more virgins in the volcano. Now, we're much more sophisticated. We throw jobs in the volcano of debt reduction. 
—Dr. Rick Boettger

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