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Posts from June 2006

Robust growth chops another half point off USA’s debt burden

The Bureau of Economic Analysis once again revised its estimate of the economy’s growth rate upwards.  It’s news of this kind that keeps me optimistic.  I continue to wonder why more politicians don’t pick up on the overwhelming importance of economic growth. 

I’ve recalibrated the Debt Clock (at upper right) accordingly.  The revised growth rate, combined with a month of little change in debt, reduced the debt-to-GDP ratio by a full half point from 65.1% to 64.6%.  (That may or may not stick, however; we’ll see when I recalibrate after the debt level for June 30 becomes available.) 

I also extended the debt-to-GDP ratio out to eight decimal places, for those of you who told me you'd like to see it tick, too. 

Here are the June results, based on the BEA’s numbers.

Growth20060628
[UPDATE: Click here for a brief, explicit summary of the math.]-

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ps- Don’t leave without reading my Lockbox article, immediately below.  It took me a while to figure out how to get that cockroach oriented properly. 

The Social Security Lockbox Hoax: Heartier than the cockroach

Sslockboxhoax

Although the cockroach has been hanging on tenaciously for billions of years, it’s now getting a run for its money from a tough-as-nails competitor: the bi-partisan political deception about "The Great Raid on the Social Security Trust Fund."

Senator Kent Conrad (D-ND) was the latest one to step up to the mike on that subject yesterday, when the Senate Finance Committee questioned Henry Paulson, nominee for Treasury secretary. 

Paulson told the committee that the deficit, at 2% GDP, was manageable—and what really matters is growth.  At that point, Senator Conrad saw his opening, and quickly changed the subject from faith-in-the-future (growth) to fear-of-the-future:

You say the deficit is in the realm of the historical norm.  You left out of the calculation the amount of money that's being taken from every trust fund in sight to float this boat.

Conrad's website confirms his purported "concerns" about The Great Trust Fund Raid.  His colleague, Senator Voinovich (R-OH) apparently couldn’t resist joining the chorus. 

The following graphic is from Kent Conrad’s website.  Before reading the caption, look carefully and try to spot what’s wrong with the cartoon. 

Emptysafe

Remember Sherlock Holmes’s famous “dog that didn’t bark”?  Well, where are the trust fund’s government bonds?  Why aren’t they shown?  Do Conrad and Voinovich think US government bonds are a worthless joke? 

Before answering that, let’s review the difference between “government money” and “government bonds”:

Cashstack Money:
A financial asset backed by the full faith and credit of the United States of America.  Does not earn interest.

Bondstack Government bond:
A financial asset backed by the full faith and credit of the United States of America.  Earns interest.

The difference: bonds earn interest; money does not. 

Senators Conrad and Voinovich want intragovernmental borrowing from the trust fund to stop.  The unraidable money in their Lockbox wouldn’t be lendable to anyone or anything.  The SS Trust Fund would therefore stop earning interest on its surplus money.  Should we picture $3 trillion of cash, sitting on thousands of pallets in a big government warehouse somewhere?  Two aisles over from the Ark of the Covenant, maybe?

Gee, I wonder how future social security recipients feel about a trust fund that doesn’t earn interest any more? 

For anyone who’s detail-oriented, I took the liberty of extracting a diagram from page 46 of the US Treasury’s Financial Report of the US Government (FRUSG), and circled in red the portion that Senators Conrad and Voinovich want to eliminate.  Their “Stop The Raid” plan would eliminate the financial flows indicated by the red star and the green star.

Click to enlarge.

Frusg46

The Lockbox idea is a hoax.  It is financially meaningless.  However, its fear-factor value makes it a political goldmine for anyone willing to capitalize on it. 

----------------------
Important end note:

Obviously, some of that was tongue-in-cheek.  The financial reality is that intragovernmental borrowing, lending, and interest payments are a wash.  The government’s left pocket owes the government’s right pocket some of the government’s money; whoopee, big deal

What really counts is borrowing, lending, and interest payments involving the government and the public.  And what makes the government more and more able to borrow from (and pay interest to) the public—as we’ve discussed at length at this website—is robust economic growth.  What makes the public willing to lend at low rates to the government is faith in the future. 

Growth is what matters most.  Henry Paulson hit the nail on the head; unfortunately, Conrad changed the subject. 

How the Fed creates money without creating socialism

[Third article in a series.]

Fedsproduct

In the first article of this series, we saw that a growing economy requires a growing amount of money, at just the right rate to prevent two undesirable situations: inflation (from too much money, compared to real goods and services), and deflation (from not enough).  In the second article, we saw that the Fed can create money out of thin air, and the Treasury can create T-bonds out of thin air. 

In this article, we’ll fill in a few details about how the Fed "creates money" (...or, to be more precise, how the Fed supports its target Fed Funds rate by responding to the public's demand for new money).  The best way I can think of to fill in a few details is with a diagram:

Createmoney2  

The most common way the Fed creates money is by purchasing some of the public’s T-bonds on the open market.  In other words, the Fed grabs a handful of that infinite potential supply of money, then trades that handful to the public in exchange for some of the public’s supply of T-bonds. 

Greenspan_1 Simple enough, on the surface.  But there are some important implications—one of which is that it requires that the public actually owns some T-bonds.  Five years ago, Alan Greenspan expressed concern that the public was headed for the dubious scenario of running out of T-bonds.  Here’s what he had to say about that possibility:

Continuing to run surpluses... brings to center stage the critical longer-term fiscal policy issue of whether the federal government should accumulate large quantities of private assets.

—Alan Greenspan, Jan. 25, 2001
 

In other words, because...

• a growing economy requires a growing money supply, and
• growing the money supply requires the Fed to purchase private assets, and
• the public’s “private assets” might someday no longer include Treasury bonds,
        then...
• the Fed would have to purchase private debt or equity instruments to increase the money supply.

Reread that last bullet.  The short word for that scenario is “socialism.”  Connecting the dots, we can draw the following inference: When we take a step towards buying back all of the public's T-bonds (“paying off the debt”), we are taking a step towards socialism. 

Something to think about next time you hear somebody advocating “paying off the debt,” isn’t it? 

In any case, it now looks as if we won’t have to worry about the socialism scenario for a while.  Since 2001, when Greenspan expressed his concern, we’ve increased the public’s supply of T-bonds to around $4.8 trillion.  That should be plenty of T-bonds for the Fed to use for preventing both inflation and deflation, as they continue to support the private sector’s success in growing the economy.  Wouldn't you agree?

======================

UPDATE: Here are links to all six articles in this series:

1 - Money: The economy’s lubrication

2 - Two Printing Presses: One at the Fed, One at the Treasury

3 - How the Fed creates money without creating socialism

4 - How the US Treasury pays back the debt

5 - The public’s T-bond supply

6 - Paying down the debt: Our dubious history, and a startling conclusion

======================

Two Printing Presses: One at the Fed, One at the Treasury

Cashbond2

[Note: This is the second article in a series.  If you haven't seen the first one yet, here's the link to Money: The economy's lubrication.]

One day I was in the vault at the bank, staring down into my safe deposit box.  Staring back up at me was a small bunch of US Savings Bonds (...fewer than I'd wished, but that's beside the point). 

It struck me:

"According to the economics textbooks, those bonds aren't 'money.'  But on the other hand, like money, they're backed by the 'full faith and credit of the US government.'  That means they will be worth their face value, in money, on maturity day.  Therefore, they represent FUTURE money, and I own them.  In other words, my govt-backed 'financial wealth' equals my money plus my future money; i.e., money plus T-bonds."

[Later, I learned that the technical term for the public's money-plus-T-bonds is "net financial wealth."  Makes sense; those T-bonds do make me feel that much wealthier.]

Pubfinwealth

But another term for "T-bonds" is "national debt"—and I'd been trained since boyhood, with good reason, to have a healthy respect for the word "debt."  Debt can help an individual or a company—or a government—do more things sooner; but if those new things turn out not to generate enough benefits to at least service the debt, unpleasant problems can result.  That's why debt deserves respect: it can be a helpful boost, but it can also turn out to be a heavy burden.  Debt is a two-sided coin, so to speak—or maybe a better metaphor is a two-sided ledger (...for every debt, there's an asset).  One side represents hope, and faith in the future; the other side represents pessimism, and fear of the future

On the list of emotions, fear is the number one motivator.  Because politicians are in the business of "motivating" us, I strongly suspect that's why they universally embrace the term "national debt" in their speeches, and universally avoid the term "Treasury bonds": they are attempting to "motivate" us. 

3bluedogs_1

To illustrate, try this mental exercise just for fun: Try to envision John Tanner, Jim Cooper, or Dennis Cardoza—all Blue Dog Democrats fond of propagating debt-phobia—getting up in front of the C-SPAN cameras to ask us:

"Do you realize how many times your T-bonds would stretch to the moon and back?  I’m talking about the T-bonds sitting in your safe deposit boxes, backing up your money market funds, and securing your insurance policies; in other words, I'm talking about all of that US-government-guaranteed wealth you own.  Any idea?" 

Of course, their answer to that rhetorical question would be forthcoming:

“That wealth would stretch to the moon and back three times!” 

Well, I don’t know about you, but here’s what I’d be thinking at that point:

_optimistlogo_1 "What?  Is that all?  That ain't squat!  I need my share of that government-backed wealth to grow a lot larger, and I need the dollar to retain its value, so that inflation doesn’t reduce the future purchasing power of all that government-backed wealth.  Do you Blue Dogs have any ideas for fostering that—as opposed to your plans for increasing my taxes so you can take my bonds away from me?" 

Don’t worry.  We’ll never hear anything about "our T-bonds" from Tanner, Cooper, Cardoza, or their fellow fear-peddlers.  They aren't ready for that kind of thought process on the part of their constituents, and we can be sure they wouldn’t do anything to provoke it. 

In any case, the public’s “net financial wealth backed by the full faith and credit of the US government” is the public's money plus the public's T-bonds.  Whenever I hear a politician trying to scare me about the “national debt,” all I have to do is form a mental picture of that little bunch of bonds in my safe deposit box, and think:

“Yep, you’re right.  The wealthiest nation in history happens to owe me some of its money.  I like that situation, and I plan to make that small bunch of bonds grow larger.  They’re the safest investment on the planet.”

[...by the way, a lot of other T-bond holders, domestic and foreign, think the same way I do about that.]

That’s my plan, anyway.  But if it’s going to succeed, I need to understand where to get those T-bonds.  (I already know the source for our money supply: it’s the so-called printing press at the Federal Reserve—the one the Fed is supposed to run at just the right pace to keep our real economy growing at its full potential, as I discussed in the first article.) 

But where will my extra T-bonds come from?  There are only two possible sources:

• existing bonds, already printed up, that someone else will sell me; or
• brand new bonds that the US Treasury will print up, then sell me. 

[For a hint as to where this series is going, think about those two bullet points.  Why do those existing bonds exist at all?  What conditions are necessary for new bonds to come into existence?

Anyway, here’s a graphic summarizing the sources of our government-backed financial wealth. 

Twopresses

Next time, in the third article of this series, I’ll discuss those two printing presses in more detail; i.e., the important interplay between money, T-bonds, the Fed, the Treasury, and the Public.

======================

UPDATE: Here are links to all six articles in this series:

1 - Money: The economy’s lubrication

2 - Two Printing Presses: One at the Fed, One at the Treasury

3 - How the Fed creates money without creating socialism

4 - How the US Treasury pays back the debt

5 - The public’s T-bond supply

6 - Paying down the debt: Our dubious history, and a startling conclusion

======================

FQ.06.25: Favorite Quote for This Week

__blueribbon_14 Poverty has no causes. Only prosperity has causes... Poverty can be overcome only if the relevant economic processes are in motion.
—Jane Jacobs

"Why Bother?": My proto-strategy to become President in 2008

Whybother1

Two old thoughts merged yesterday, and became the kernel of a new strategy for getting myself elected President of the United States of America in 2008.  Believe it or not, if my strategy works, I could concede 99.99998% of the popular vote to my opponent, and still get elected. 

Here are the two thoughts that merged:

Old thought #1, triggered whenever I hear a do-gooder on either side whining and moaning about voter turnout being “too low”:

“Why the heck should I want voter turnout to be higher?  My vote carries the most weight when everyone else stays home!” 

[Sometimes the do-gooder is a family member, in which case voicing my opinion makes an unpleasant evening highly likely.]

Old thought #2
, triggered every time I get a positive email from a reader:

“I’ve had favorable feedback on this site from at least the 11 most populous states; I bet I could swing a few votes...” 

Merged idea - The "Why Bother" strategy:

If I could convince enough people in eleven specific states to stay home on election day, but could also be sure a small but sufficient number of voters in those states cast a ballot for me, the presidency would be mine—because of the electoral votes.   

My two-pronged proto-strategy:

• Concentrate on the eleven most populous states;

• Convince enough voters in those states to stay home and relax on election day.

To analyze the possibilities, I set up a spreadsheet showing potential vote tallies in the fifty states plus DC.  All I really need to do is win by one popular vote in each of the eleven most populous states... and that yields an interesting set of potential election outcomes. 

Below is one of those possible outcomes:
11 votes
for me, 55 million votes for my opponent.  
Result: Oval Office, here I come.   

Whybother2

Does my strategy have legs?  I’m not sure; that’s why I’m posting it here for you to examine.  Your feedback is welcome, of course; I’ll wait for that before I decide whether to take this campaign to the fund-raising stage.

[And even if this strategy turns out to be a no-go, I just might get a few of those bumperstickers printed up anyway.]

Money: The economy’s lubrication

Cash100b

Introduction 
This is the first in a series of posts I’ve planned for the next few weeks.  The series will end with a conclusion about deficits and debt that will probably startle many people.  No, wait: not just probably; I’ll stick my neck out and guarantee it. 

Developing the topic properly would be too much for a single article, so I chopped it into several subtopics—because the two most important things I’ve learned about publishing on the web are (1) keep the prose concise, and (2) use images when possible.  A single, lengthy article would have violated rule number 1. 

That’s a lengthy introduction that really means, “If you think this post is too elementary, bear with me.  There’s more to come, and this is important groundwork.  You will not be disappointed.” 

Money is lube
Our economy is not 13 trillion dollars in size; instead, its size is $13 trillion worth of goods and services.  Big distinction there: it’s the goods and services that make our lives better, not the money.  (In a dark alley at night, would you rather have a twenty dollar bill, or a twenty dollar flashlight?)  The dollars are just a time-shifting mechanism to bridge the gap between the value of stuff you produced for others, versus the value of the stuff produced by others that you might buy someday.   

To illustrate the purpose and use of money in an economy, let's take a look at several different economies—using a few simple images I've been keeping in my head.  The most primitive economy is a barter economy.  No money at all.  Economists are universal on at least this one point: barter economies are highly primitive and inefficient—and highly unlikely to enable the participants to escape from poverty.  Because every exchange (transaction) requires a "double-coincidence of wants," there aren’t many exchanges because there aren't many double-coincidences.  Result: One small, anemic pile of goods and services is all the economy can produce and consume, as shown in Economy 1a, below. 

Economy1ab

But in Economy 1b, an economy utilizing money as a medium of exchange, the double-coincidence is no longer required for a transaction to take place.  Money provides liquidity; it lubricates the economy.  Pouring a sufficient amount of money into a barter economy is like pouring water onto that small pile of goods and services.  It forms a nice, viscous little slurry, allowing things to move more freely. 

Money enables the economy to increase its production and consumption of goods and services; i.e., to escape from poverty.  That’s economic growth. 

But what if goods and services growth is not matched by a sufficient amount of money growth?  We end up with Economy 2a, below: an economy with insufficient liquidity.  Growth slows, or stops altogether.  That’s economic stagnation.  The lack of liquidity could even result in economic contraction. 

Economy2abc

Economy 2b, on the other hand, has just the right amount of money growth.  Whoever is controlling the money supply is doing a good job of creating new money at the same rate that new goods and services are being created.  [This, by the way, is my favorite kind of economy: high growth, while inflation is low, predictable, and well under control.] 

Economy 2c is an inflationary economy.  Money growth is outpacing real goods and services growth.  Result: too much liquidity.  I haven’t found too many people, including economists, who like this scenario more than the previous one. 

Conclusion
I frequently hear politicians and journalists (of all political persuasions, by the way) talking as if increasing the number of dollars flying around in our economy is automatically inflationary.  That’s just not true, but the fear of creating “too much money” (Economy 2c) has stifled economic growth in the past, and resulted, ironically, in saddling us with Economy 2a.  Believe it or not, many intelligent people believe that real growth actually causes inflation.  (I wonder if that philosophy was prevailing at the Fed Board of Governors in early 2000; I’ve speculated on that before.)   

In any case, money enables growth; too much money causes inflation; too little money causes stagnation or contraction.  We need just the right amount of money growth to enable the real economy to grow without inflating the currency. 

[Although that may sound elementary to some, it is an absolutely necessary foundation for the subsequent articles I have planned on the topic of deficits and debt.  Stay tuned.]

======================

UPDATE: Here are links to all six articles in this series:

1 - Money: The economy’s lubrication

2 - Two Printing Presses: One at the Fed, One at the Treasury

3 - How the Fed creates money without creating socialism

4 - How the US Treasury pays back the debt

5 - The public’s T-bond supply

6 - Paying down the debt: Our dubious history, and a startling conclusion

======================

Strict constructionism and the Pledge of Allegiance

Pledge

[Note:  I’ve decided to stop trying to figure out if I’m a strict constructionist or not.  Last year I tried once, then a second time; no luck.  This was my third try; still no luck.]

Dr. John W. Baer wrote a concise summary, The Pledge of Allegiance: A Short History, back in 1992.  As I read it on the web, I was contemplating which version would be favored by strict constructionists versus loose constructionists.  I’m still not sure; however, here is how Dr. Baer said the Pledge of Allegiance has evolved since its inception. 

Below, I've highlighted in bold red the changes that led to today’s version of the Pledge.  In bold blue are new changes that have been suggested, but obviously not approved as yet.

1892 - Original version by Francis Bellamy:

I pledge allegiance to my Flag and the Republic for which it stands, one nation, indivisible, with liberty and justice for all.

• October 1892 – A one-word revision:

I pledge allegiance to my Flag and to the Republic for which it stands, one nation, indivisible, with liberty and justice for all.

1924 - Revised by National Flag Conference:

I pledge allegiance to the Flag of the United States of America, and to the Republic for which it stands, one nation, indivisible, with liberty and justice for all.

1954 - Revised by Congress after a campaign by the Knights of Columbus:

I pledge allegiance to the Flag of the United States of America, and to the Republic for which it stands, one nation, under God, indivisible, with liberty and justice for all. 

The 1954 version is the one we use today, and I’d just as soon leave it as it stands.  (Does that make me a loose constructionist, or a strict constructionist regarding the Pledge?  I still don’t know.)  In any case, not everyone agrees with my position.  Here's proof: Below are two different versions that have been proposed by two different groups...

• Group A wants three words added to today’s version:

I pledge allegiance to the Flag of the United States of America, and to the Republic for which it stands, one nation, under God, indivisible, with liberty and justice for all, born and unborn.

• Group B wants to revert to the 1892 version, plus one word:

I pledge allegiance to my Flag, and to the Republic for which it stands, one nation, indivisible, with equality, liberty and justice for all. 

Which Pledge should “strict constructionists” want?  How about “loose constructionists”?  I’m not sure which one of those better describes my position—but I’m more convinced than ever that I don’t want to be pigeonholed as one or the other. 

[I think I’ll stop dabbling with this political question and stick with economics from now on.]

FQ.06.24: Favorite Quote for This Week

__blueribbon_13 The West's system of economic growth offered its largest financial rewards to innovators who improved the lifestyle not of the wealthy few, but of the less-wealthy many. 
—Nathan Rosenberg

Have interest rates found a plateau?

Several weeks ago, there was a collision between rising short term rates and level long term rates.  Short rates won that battle (i.e., long rates rose), but now it looks as if everything might be settling in at a new level.  [Remember, this is not a forecast, only observation and speculation.] 

Here's the usual chart.  Click to enlarge.

Intrates20060614

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